How signals are sourced, baselined, and determined.

Data Source

Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) permit filings for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford.

Baseline

Trailing 28-day daily average, scaled to a 7-day comparable window.

Direction Determination

Rising if current 7-day volume exceeds baseline by more than 10%. Slowing if below by more than 10%. Neutral within that band.

Data Source

ERCOT real-time system load data via EIA API.

Baseline

Trailing 7-day same-hour average.

Direction Determination

Above baseline if current load exceeds the average by more than 8%. Easing if below by more than 8%. Neutral within that band.

Data Source

Aggregated energy role postings tracked across Houston-area operators and EPC firms.

Baseline

Prior 7-day posting volume.

Direction Determination

Accelerating if current week exceeds prior week by more than 15%. Slowing if below by more than 15%. Steady within that band.

Data Source

Gulf Coast Alpha proprietary signal framework. No external news or commentary is used.

Baseline

Internal directional model with a 14-day forward horizon.

Direction Determination

Direction is determined by the Gulf Coast Alpha signal framework. Signals are published only when conviction exceeds the internal threshold. No model names, parameters, or training details are disclosed.